Van Gisbergen won his way into the Playoffs by virtue of a dominant display at Mexico City and earned 22 bonus points to be the sixth seed and +16 above the cut-off line.

Despite his standing, there are fears van Gisbergen’s oval inexperience will put him at an early disadvantage and risk his place in the Playoffs.

The Round of 16 begins at Darlington, an oval that SVG said is among his favourites. Then it heads to Gateway where he’s never raced before. The first leg of the Playoffs conclude at Bristol, one of the toughest bullrings on the calendar.

After those three races, four drivers will be cut from the Playoffs.

NASCAR commentator and former crew chief Steve Letarte said whether van Gisbergen makes it past the Round of 16 is the “million-dollar question” that everyone wants to know

“He seems to be – from the booth – not only running better, but his maneuvering on the race track is getting better and better every week for me,” he said, speaking on NASCAR’s Inside the Race.

Letarte said van Gisbergen’s undoing will be stage points, which he does not believe the Kiwi can accumulate.

NASCAR races are split into three stages, with first through 10th receiving a sliding scale of bonus points from 10 points to one. Each stage winner receives a single bonus point.

“He can’t. He’s not going to,” Letarte said of van Gisbergen scoring stage points.

“No, it’s not going to happen. He ain’t going to score one stage point in the first three races.

“SVG on a good day, and this is not a knock, he would tell you himself, if he’s running 11th to 15th we’re like, ‘Man, good run for SVG on an oval’.

“When they throw the green-white-chequered flag [to end the stage] he gets zero. No stage points.

“Austin Cindric could run sixth having a pretty good day and when they throw that green-white-chequered flag he scores stage points.

“That’s where the field starts to deviate. That’s what we don’t talk about enough. It’s not where you finish the race, it’s how many points you scored.”

All 22 of van Gisbergen’s stage points have been accrued on road courses.

Letarte said he is encouraged by the Trackhouse Racing driver’s upward trajectory but that his inexperience may be his undoing.

“It’s going to be very close if he can make it or not,” said Letarte.

“I don’t know, because I think it’s hard to judge. He really likes Darlington. Bristol is probably going to be his biggest challenge.

“We’ll just have to wait and see. I think he’s the hardest to predict because he’s on an upward trend.

“If he does get eliminated, I bet you can do the math on stage points. The guy that eliminates him probably eliminates him on stage points alone.”

Denny Hamlin, a three-time Daytona 500 winner who sits third in the standings, picked Austin Dillon, Josh Berry, Austin Cindric, and van Gisbergen as the at-risk drivers most likely to fall.

“It will be a challenge,” said Hamlin.

“He’s got 22 extra bonus points, so he’s not in a bad spot.

“All he needs is a few of these guys to have lacklustre days and he just somehow goes in there and finishes top 20 and finds himself in a decent spot going into that last cut-off race.”

NASCAR journalist Jeff Gluck of The Athletic also cast doubt over van Gisbergen.

He tipped van Gisbergen’s Trackhouse Racing teammate Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, and Dillon to be first round exits.

“I actually have SVG out in round one because yes he has 22 Playoff points, but it’s tough, he’s never seen Gateway before. Bristol is tough. Darlington is tough,” Gluck said on Door Bumper Clear.

“I think he said Darlington is his favourite track, but it’s still tough. Those are really tough races. And 22 points is great, but those can go away pretty quick.”

Going into the first round of the Playoffs at Darlington, Josh Berry (Wood Brothers Racing) and Tyler Reddick (23XI Racing) are the first drivers below the cut-off line.

Berry and Reddick are -1 followed by Dillon of Richard Childress Racing at -2 while Alex Bowman is at -5 for Hendrick Motorsports.

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